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West Pacific/2015/10W/Archive/2
Public advisory TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 2 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 6:00 PM JST THU JUL 2 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM LINFA NOT WELL-ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 6:00 PM JST...09:00 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION 14.5N 129.0E CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: LOW ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 KT...40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 6 KT...7 MPH...11 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK --------------------------------------------- At 6:00 pm JST, the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was located at 14.1N 129.3E, about 560 miles (900 km) east of Manila, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1002 mb (29.59 inHg), and the cyclone was moving steadily northwestward at 6 knots (7 mph, 11 km/h). Environmental conditions are expected to favor modest strengthening over the next few days, but they may become less conducive by the end of the forecast period. NEXT ADVISORY ------------------- Next complete advisory at 12:00 am JST. $$ Forecaster YE Discussion TROPICAL STORM LINFA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 6:00 PM JST THU JUL 2 2015 Dvorak estimates appear to be playing catch up with the actual winds, therefore, the intensity remains unchanged. While Linfa has become much better organized, this evidence is not conclusive enough for me to raise the intensity. With that said, then circulation, while looking much better now, is still elongated and the current convective mass looks like a caterpillar. The ghood news is though is that the low-level center is no longer naked. The initial motion is steadily northwestward this evening. Linfa is being steered on this course via the western extent of a mid-level ridge across the northern West Pacific. This steering regime is expected to continue to be the dominant steering mechanism throughout the forecast period. However, complicating matters is the forecast progression of an upper-level trough across mainland China and across Japan after 72 hours. The GFS and ECMWF do not agree on how much influence this trough will have on Linfa, with the former showing a weaker trough and subsequent slower/more west track and the latter showing a stronger trough and subsequent faster/more east track. The 9z GFs shifted west this run and brings it near Luzon in the South China Sea by day 5. The new forecast track is east of the previous one. The environment Linfa finds itself in is generally favorable for slow intensification, with sea surface temperatures near or at 30C, high ocean heat content values, and a generally moist mid-level atmosphere. However, one potential limiting factor is a moderate 10 to 20 knots of easterly wind shear, which is not expected to relent over the next few days. As such, global and hurricane models only show slow intensification, and the intensity forecast this cycle will follow suit. By the end of the forecast period, interaction with the northern Philippines as well as increasing shear may cause Linfa to begin weakening, although the GFS and ECMWF disagree on the extent of such weakening, with the 0z ECMWF keeping it a bona fide typhoon, while the GFS almost kills it. Per the above reasoning, the end-period intensity forecast follows the GFS more. INIT 02/0900Z 14.5N 129.0E 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 15.0N 128.4E 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0900Z 15.4N 127.4E 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 15.9N 127.5E 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0900Z 16.1N 125.9E 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/0900Z 16.6N 124.9E 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/0900Z 17.5N 123.4E 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR LUZON.... 120H 07/0900Z 18.4N 121.9E 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster YE